Updated on Sunday 10 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 80032 (+1455) 1347003 (+26149) 237193 (+14031) 1029778 (+10663)
United Kingdom 31587 (+346) 215260 (+3896) 0 (+0) 183673 (+3550)
Italy 30395 (+194) 218268 (+1083) 103031 (+4008) 84842 (-3119)
Spain 26478 (+179) 262783 (+2666) 173157 (+4749) 63148 (-2262)
France 26310 (+80) 176658 (+579) 56038 (+256) 94310 (+243)
Brazil 10656 (+664) 156061 (+10169) 61685 (+6335) 83720 (+3170)
Belgium 8581 (+60) 52596 (+585) 13411 (+210) 30604 (+315)
Germany 7549 (+39) 171324 (+736) 143300 (+1600) 20475 (-903)
Iran 6589 (+48) 106220 (+1529) 85064 (+1227) 14567 (+254)
Netherlands 5422 (+63) 42382 (+289) 0 (+0) 36960 (+226)
Canada 4693 (+126) 67702 (+1376) 31249 (+843) 31760 (+407)
China 4633 (+0) 82887 (+1) 78046 (+53) 208 (-52)
Turkey 3739 (+50) 137115 (+1546) 89480 (+3084) 43896 (-1588)
Sweden 3220 (+45) 25921 (+656) 4971 (+0) 17730 (+611)
Mexico 3160 (+199) 31522 (+1906) 20314 (+2533) 8048 (-826)
India 2101 (+116) 62808 (+3115) 19301 (+1414) 41406 (+1585)
Switzerland 1830 (+7) 30251 (+44) 26400 (+300) 2021 (-263)
Russia 1827 (+104) 198676 (+10817) 31916 (+5308) 164933 (+5405)
Peru 1814 (+100) 65015 (+3168) 20246 (+1234) 42955 (+1834)
Ecuador 1717 (+13) 29071 (-1227) 3433 (+0) 23921 (-1240)
Ireland 1446 (+17) 22760 (+219) 17110 (+0) 4204 (+202)
Portugal 1126 (+12) 27406 (+138) 2499 (+77) 23781 (+49)
Indonesia 959 (+16) 13645 (+533) 2607 (+113) 10079 (+404)
Romania 939 (+16) 15131 (+320) 6912 (+489) 7280 (-185)
Poland 785 (+9) 15651 (+285) 5437 (+253) 9429 (+23)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 275567 (+4267) 4014970 (+88221) 1355896 (+56552)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 267101 ( +2360) 3836633 ( +38367) 1341650 ( +30997)
Mon 11 May 2020 269257 ( +2156) 3872277 ( +35644) 1371129 ( +29479)
Tue 12 May 2020 271225 ( +1967) 3905340 ( +33064) 1399075 ( +27945)
Wed 13 May 2020 273017 ( +1792) 3935966 ( +30626) 1425486 ( +26412)
Thu 14 May 2020 274648 ( +1631) 3964297 ( +28330) 1450377 ( +24890)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82887 (+1) 78046 (+53)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82962 ( +5) 77094 ( +1)
Mon 11 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82966 ( +5) 77095 ( +1)
Tue 12 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82971 ( +4) 77095 ( +1)
Wed 13 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82974 ( +4) 77096 ( +0)
Thu 14 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82978 ( +3) 77096 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 26478 (+179) 262783 (+2666) 173157 (+4749)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 26317 ( +103) 248046 ( +555) 167992 ( +1031)
Mon 11 May 2020 26409 ( +92) 248541 ( +496) 168791 ( +800)
Tue 12 May 2020 26490 ( +82) 248984 ( +443) 169409 ( +617)
Wed 13 May 2020 26563 ( +73) 249380 ( +395) 169884 ( +475)
Thu 14 May 2020 26627 ( +64) 249732 ( +353) 170249 ( +365)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 30395 (+194) 218268 (+1083) 103031 (+4008)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 30231 ( +134) 217651 ( +747) 100548 ( +2162)
Mon 11 May 2020 30352 ( +122) 218330 ( +679) 102635 ( +2086)
Tue 12 May 2020 30462 ( +110) 218945 ( +616) 104643 ( +2008)
Wed 13 May 2020 30562 ( +100) 219503 ( +558) 106571 ( +1929)
Thu 14 May 2020 30652 ( +90) 220008 ( +505) 108419 ( +1848)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 31587 (+346) 215260 (+3896) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 31116 ( +107) 206572 ( +2000) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 31193 ( +77) 208401 ( +1828) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 31247 ( +55) 210070 ( +1669) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 31287 ( +39) 211591 ( +1521) nan ( +nan)
Thu 14 May 2020 31315 ( +28) 212975 ( +1384) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 80032 (+1455) 1347003 (+26149) 237193 (+14031)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 79385 ( +1160) 1350550 ( +18357) 242199 ( +8480)
Mon 11 May 2020 80476 ( +1091) 1367451 ( +16902) 250443 ( +8244)
Tue 12 May 2020 81501 ( +1025) 1382949 ( +15498) 258425 ( +7982)
Wed 13 May 2020 82463 ( +962) 1397106 ( +14157) 266123 ( +7698)
Thu 14 May 2020 83365 ( +902) 1409993 ( +12887) 273521 ( +7397)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 26310 (+80) 176658 (+579) 56038 (+256)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 26185 ( +99) 169597 ( +76) 53921 ( +253)
Mon 11 May 2020 26273 ( +88) 169661 ( +64) 54146 ( +225)
Tue 12 May 2020 26350 ( +77) 169715 ( +54) 54347 ( +201)
Wed 13 May 2020 26418 ( +68) 169761 ( +46) 54527 ( +179)
Thu 14 May 2020 26478 ( +60) 169800 ( +39) 54686 ( +160)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 7549 (+39) 171324 (+736) 143300 (+1600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 7556 ( +70) 170127 ( +409) 143069 ( +1390)
Mon 11 May 2020 7621 ( +65) 170493 ( +365) 144369 ( +1300)
Tue 12 May 2020 7682 ( +61) 170818 ( +325) 145583 ( +1214)
Wed 13 May 2020 7738 ( +56) 171108 ( +290) 146716 ( +1133)
Thu 14 May 2020 7790 ( +52) 171365 ( +258) 147773 ( +1057)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 5422 (+63) 42382 (+289) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 5369 ( +31) 41996 ( +133) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 5397 ( +28) 42114 ( +118) nan ( +nan)
Tue 12 May 2020 5422 ( +25) 42218 ( +104) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 5444 ( +22) 42311 ( +92) nan ( +nan)
Thu 14 May 2020 5464 ( +20) 42392 ( +82) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 8581 (+60) 52596 (+585) 13411 (+210)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 8625 ( +80) 51410 ( +167) 13306 ( +127)
Mon 11 May 2020 8699 ( +74) 51559 ( +149) 13426 ( +119)
Tue 12 May 2020 8766 ( +68) 51691 ( +132) 13538 ( +112)
Wed 13 May 2020 8828 ( +62) 51808 ( +117) 13644 ( +106)
Thu 14 May 2020 8885 ( +56) 51912 ( +104) 13743 ( +99)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 3220 (+45) 25921 (+656) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 3193 ( +51) 26023 ( +471) 6530 ( +865)
Mon 11 May 2020 3242 ( +49) 26482 ( +459) 7520 ( +990)
Tue 12 May 2020 3288 ( +46) 26930 ( +448) 8652 ( +1132)
Wed 13 May 2020 3332 ( +44) 27366 ( +436) 9943 ( +1291)
Thu 14 May 2020 3373 ( +41) 27791 ( +425) 11412 ( +1469)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 785 (+9) 15651 (+285) 5437 (+253)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 797 ( +14) 15601 ( +223) 5616 ( +181)
Mon 11 May 2020 810 ( +13) 15816 ( +214) 5756 ( +141)
Tue 12 May 2020 822 ( +12) 16021 ( +206) 5875 ( +118)
Wed 13 May 2020 834 ( +11) 16219 ( +197) 5978 ( +104)
Thu 14 May 2020 844 ( +11) 16408 ( +189) 6070 ( +92)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 1830 (+7) 30251 (+44) 26400 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 1832 ( +5) 29952 ( +19) 26118 ( +127)
Mon 11 May 2020 1837 ( +5) 29969 ( +17) 26230 ( +111)
Tue 12 May 2020 1841 ( +4) 29983 ( +15) 26327 ( +97)
Wed 13 May 2020 1844 ( +4) 29996 ( +13) 26411 ( +85)
Thu 14 May 2020 1847 ( +3) 30007 ( +11) 26485 ( +74)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 10656 (+664) 156061 (+10169) 61685 (+6335)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 10859 ( +539) 164585 ( +10103) 56283 ( +1064)
Mon 11 May 2020 11397 ( +537) 175033 ( +10448) 57231 ( +948)
Tue 12 May 2020 11930 ( +533) 185783 ( +10749) 58071 ( +840)
Wed 13 May 2020 12456 ( +526) 196783 ( +11000) 58812 ( +741)
Thu 14 May 2020 12972 ( +516) 207980 ( +11196) 59464 ( +652)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 09 May 2020 6589 (+48) 106220 (+1529) 85064 (+1227)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 10 May 2020 6526 ( +32) 107619 ( +1559) 82716 ( +419)
Mon 11 May 2020 6556 ( +30) 109224 ( +1606) 83094 ( +378)
Tue 12 May 2020 6583 ( +27) 110871 ( +1647) 83434 ( +340)
Wed 13 May 2020 6608 ( +25) 112552 ( +1681) 83741 ( +306)
Thu 14 May 2020 6631 ( +23) 114259 ( +1707) 84017 ( +276)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.